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Papers by Session

This collection of papers is the proceedings of ICASP12, the 12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering held in Vancouver, Canada on July 12-15, 2015. The papers are published in cIRcle, the Digital Repository of the University of British Columbia, and each paper is assigned a digital object identifier, DOI. To find the DOI for a specific paper, click on that paper below to open it and then scroll down to the metadata. You may also notice the metadata inaccurately says that the papers are “Unreviewed.” That is because the “Reviewed” label is reserved for journal papers; in actuality abstracts and full papers were peer reviewed. 556 abstracts were submitted, 430 abstracts were accepted, 371 papers were accepted, and 290 papers were ultimately published. If you prefer to reference this collection by an ISBN number then the book of ICASP12 papers has the ISBN number 978-0-88865-245-4. If you have any questions, please contact the editor T. Haukaas at terje@civil.ubc.ca.

GS-1: Probabilistic Models

297 Inter-relationship between Physical-Chemical Processes and Extreme Value Modelling Melchers
180 Prediction of Water Mains Failure – A Bayesian Approach Kabir, Tesfamariam, Sadiq
356 Dimension Reduction Methods for Reliability Problems Breitung
484 Hierarchical Modeling of Systems with Similar Components Memarzadeh, Pozzi, Kolter
154 Improved Probability Distribution Models for Seismic Fragility Assessment Qin, Mackie, Stojadinovic
575 Pedestrian Bridges Monitoring Data for Stochastic Modelling of Human-induced Loads Casciati, Casciati, Faravelli
557 Nanomechanics Based Theory of Size Effect on Strength, Lifetime and Residual Strength Distributions of Quasibrittle Failure: A Review Salviato, Kirane, Bazant
656 On a Newly Developed Estimator for More Accurate Modeling with an Application to Civil Engineering Habibullah, Shan-E-Fatima
384 The Role of Fiber Volume Fraction in Tensile Strength of Fibrous Composites Rypl, Vorechovsky, Chudoba

GS-3: Reliability Methods

536 Application of the Multiplicative Dimensional Reduction Method (M-DRM) to a Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Problem Raimbault, Walbridge, Pandey
358 Targeted Random Sampling for Time-invariant Reliability Analysis Shields, Sundar
389 Estimation of the Failure Probability of a Floating Wind Turbine under Environmental Load Murangira, Munoz Zuniga, Perdrizet
598 Nonlinear Combination of Multiple Environmental Design Parameters Based on FORM Algorithms Leira
648 Improved Formulation of Audze-Eglajs Criterion for Space-filling Designs Vořechovský, Eliáš
453 Importance Sampling in the Evaluation and Optimization of Buffered Failure Probability Harajli, Rockafellar, Royset

GS-5: System Reliability Analysis

281 Reliability and Controllability of Infrastructure Networks: Do They Match? Li, Dueñas-Osorio, Chen
314 Reliability Analysis of Systems Based on Survival Signature Feng, Patelli, Beer
353 Systems Reliability of Flow Control in Dam Safety Komey, Deng, Baecher, Zielinski, Atkinson
493 Fragility Curves of Restoration Processes for Resilience Analysis Barberis, Malavisi, Cimellaro, Mahin

GS-7: Uncertainty Analysis

390 Uncertainty Quantification of Heavy Gas Release Over a Barrier Shoeibi Omrani, O’Mahoney, Mack, Witteveen
622 Influence on Structural Reliability of Uncertainty in Estimated Extreme Values of Load-Effects Reid, Naess
646 Small-sample Probabilistic Simulation Software Tool FReET Novak, Vořechovský

GS-8: Probabilistic Finite Element Analysis / GS-9: Sensitivity Analysis

200 Finite Element Reliability Analysis of Structures using the Dimensional Reduction Method Balomenos, Pandey
133 Stochastic Multi-scale Finite Element Analysis for Laminated Composite Plates Zhou, Gosling
357 Sensitivity Analysis of Fluid-Structure Interaction using the PFEM Zhu, Scott
279 Random Field Modelling for the Prediction of Wall Thickness of Nuclear Pipes Considering Data Misalignment Adegbola, Yuan, Wang

GS-10: Random Vibrations and Stochastic Processes

331 Simulation of Narrowband Non-Gaussian Processes Using Envelope Distribution Tsuchida, Kimura
437 A Constrained Nonlinear Stochastic Optimal Control for Dynamical Systems El-Khoury, Shafieezadeh
566 The Moment Equation Closure Method Revisited through the Use of Complex Fractional Moments Alotta, Bucher, Di Matteo, Di Paola, Pirrotta
642 Random Vibration of Arbitrarily Supported Single-span Beams Subject to Random Moving Loads Caprani

GS-12: Hazard Analysis

323 A Multi Hazard Risk Assessment Methodology Accounting for Cascading Hazard Events Ní Choine, O’Connor, Gehl, D’Ayala, García-Fernández, Jiménez, Gavin, Van Gelder, Salceda, Power
387 Application of Region of Influence Approach to Estimate Extreme Snow Load for a Northeastern Province in China Mo, Fan, Hong
440 An Improved Approach for Aftershock Hazard Assessment Muderrisoğlu, Yazgan
520 Reliability-based Seismic Hazard Analysis Rahimi, Mahsuli, Bakhshi

GS-13: Damage and Deterioration

428 The Continuous Wavelet Transform as a Stochastic Process for Damage Detection Balafas, Rajagopal, Kiremidjian
318 Life-cycle Robustness: Quantification and Challenges Wendner, Tamparopoulos, Bergmeister
415 A Unified Formalism For Modeling And Reliability Estimation Of Degrading Systems Riascos-Ochoa, Sánchez-Silva, Klutke
597 Reliability of Corroded Pipelines Accounting for System Effects Leira, Næss, Brandrud Næss
654 Evaluation of Structural Reliability for Reinforced Concrete Buildings Exposed to Corrosion Carrillo-Bueno, Ruiz, Tolentino

GS-15: Earthquake Engineering

147 Probabilistic Reliability Assessment of Real-Time Hybrid Simulation of Structures with Degradation Ryan, Chen, Richardson
250 Development of Stochastic Heterogeneous Slip Distribution Model for Simulation of Earthquake Ground Motion Abe, Sekimura, Itoi
321 Load Combination of Aftershocks and Tsunami for Tsunami-resistant Design Choi, Nishida, Itoi, Takada
337 Shaking Table Experiment of Fault-Tolerant Seismic Vibration Control of a Building Based on Sensor Reliability Tanaka, Kohiyama
492 Probabilistic Analysis of Soil-Structure Interaction Mirzaie, Mahsuli, Ghannad

GS-17: Wind Engineering

124 Variability of Time Independent Wind Load Components Botha, Retief, Viljoen
199 An Agent-based Framework for Modeling the Effectiveness of Hurricane Mitigation Incentives Pei, Pang, Testik, Ravichandran
248 Fatigue Reliability of Casted Wind Turbine Components due to Defects Mirzaei Rafsanjani, Sørensen
282 System Reliability of Suspension Bridges Considering Static Divergence and Flutter Øiseth, Rønnquist, Naess
373 Reducing Wind Turbine Load Simulation Uncertainties by Means of a Constrained Gaussian Turbulence Field Dimitrov, Lazarov
525 Application of the Box-Cox Power Transformation in Extreme Value Analysis of Wind Speed Hong
636 Reliability Assessment of Wind Turbines Sørensen
476 Analytical Damage Quantification Method for Residential Developments Subjected to Hurricane Wind Hazards Grayson, Pang
372 Multivariate Modelling of Extreme Load Combinations for Wind Turbines Dimitrov

GS-18: Risk-based Optimization / GS-20: Decision-making

618 Protocols for Communication and Governance of Risks Vrouwenvelder, Lind, Faber
620 On the Regulation of Life Safety Risk Faber, Sørensen, Vrouwenvelder
111 A Reliability-Based Optimization Scheme for Maintenance Management in Large-Scale Bridge Networks Hu, Daganzo, Madanat
316 Optimization of Future Drinking Water Pipe Renewal under Uncertainty Large, Tomasian, Elachachi, Le Gat, Renaud, Breysse

GS-19: Risk Assessment and Management

277 Probabilistic Treatment of Storm Rotation and Wind-driven Rain Deposition in a Hurricane Model Johnson, Pinelli, Cocke
333 Pushover-Based Loss Estimation of Masonry Buildings with Consideration of Uncertainties Snoj, Dolšek
426 Risk Management of Multi-State Multi-Component Bridge Systems Using a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process Shafieezadeh, Fereshtehnejad
438 Application of a Scenario-Based Assessment Framework for the Seismic Resilience of Seaports Ivey Burden, Shafieezadeh

GS-21: Maintenance and Inspection

247 A Condition-based Maintenance Policy based on a Probabilistic Meta-model in the case of Chloride-induced Corrosion El Hajj, Castanier, Schoefs, Bastidas-Arteaga, Yeung
272 Incorporating Network Considerations into Pavement Management Systems Medury, Madanat
332 Probability of Detection of Potential Mapping and its Impact on Service Life Prediction Kessler, Gehlen
407 Life-cycle Maintenance, Monitoring, and Inspection Optimization for Ship Structures under Uncertainty Soliman, Frangopol, Mondoro

GS-23: Bridge Engineering

226 Probabilistic Fatigue Life Prediction for Bridges Using System Reliability Analysis and SHM-based Finite Element Model Updating Lee, Cho
239 Estimating Characteristic Bridge Traffic Load Effects Using Bayesian Statistics Leahy, OBrien, Enright, Power
298 System Fragility Curves for a Long Multi-Frame Bridge under Differential Support Motions Jeon, Shafieezadeh, DesRoches
367 Time-Dependent Fatigue Reliability Assessment of Ting Kau Bridge Based on Weigh-In-Motion Data Zhang, Au

GS-24: Special Structures

221 Fragility Assessment of Above Ground Petroleum Storage Tanks under Storm Surge Kameshwar, Padgett
423 Vulnerability Analysis of Transmission Towers subjected to Unbalanced Ice Loads Rezaei, Chouinard, Legeron, Langlois
424 Life Cycle Cost-Benefit Evaluation of Self-centering and Conventional Concentrically Braced Frames Dyanati, Huang, Roke
633 Stochastic Dynamic Analysis of a Marine Riser using the First-Order Reliability Method Alibrandi, Koh

GS-25: Code Calibration

231 Reliability-based Calibration of Partial Safety Factors for Wave Energy Converters Ambühl, Kramer, Sørensen
246 Defining a Braking Probability to Estimate Extreme Braking Forces on Road Bridges Martins, Fénart, Feltrin, Dumont, Beyer
171 On Standardization of the Reliability Basis of Structural Design Holicky, Retief, Diamantidis, Viljoen
621 Calibration of Partial Safety Factors for Fatigue Design of Steel Bridges D’Angelo, Faber, Nussbaumer
522 Determination of Target Safety for Structures Holicky, Diamantidis, Sykora

GS-26: Applications

472 Strategies for Separation of Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties Koduru
433 Shake Table Tests of Stochastic Optimal Polynomial Control of Two Span Bridge Equipped with MR Dampers El-Khoury, Kim, Shafieezadeh, Hur, Heo
655 Evaluation of Decisions to Rehabilitate South African Dams in terms of the ANCOLD ALARP Criterion and SWTP for Human Safety Viljoen, Reynolds
341 Application of Expert Judgment to the Quantification of a Damage Scale for Reinforced Concrete Buildings Exposed to Fire Ioannou, Rush, Bisby, Aspinall, Rossetto
361 Characterization of Measurement Uncertainties in Crack Profiles Assessed by In-Line Inspection Tools Koduru, Lu, Skow

MS-1: Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs for Engineering Risk Analysis

528 Parameter Identification In Chloride Ingress From Accelerated Test Using Bayesian Network Tran, Bastidas-Arteaga, Bonnet, Schoefs
125 Prediction of Soil Corrosivity Index: A Bayesian Belief Network Approach Demissie, Tesfamariam, Sadiq
405 Operational Modal Analysis using Variational Bayes Li, Der Kiureghian
400 Bayesian Networks for Model Updating and Inspection Support of Marine Structures Subject to Fatigue Groden, Collette
155 Enhanced Bayesian Networks approach to Risk Assessment of Spent Fuel Ponds Tolo, Patelli, Beer, Broggi
434 Simulation-Based Analysis of Reconfigurable System of System Network Topologies for Resilience Using Bayesian Networks Francis
491 Probabilistic Modeling of System Deterioration with Inspection and Monitoring Data using Bayesian Networks Luque, Straub
541 Sensor Network Optimization using Bayesian Networks, Decision Graphs, and Value of Information Malings, Pozzi
489 A Data Fusion Probabilistic Model for Hurricane-Induced Outages in Electric Power Grids Mensah, Dueñas-Osorio
207 Risk-based Decision Making for Deterioration Processes Using POMDP Nielsen, Sørensen
121 The Assessment of the Reliability of Potentially Deteriorated Reinforced Concrete Elements with Bayesian Networks Hackl, Kohler
269 Bayesian Networks in Levee System Reliability Roscoe, Hanea
460 Compression and Inference Algorithms for Bayesian Network Modeling of Infrastructure Systems Tien, Der Kiureghian
313 Discretization of Structural Reliability Problems: An Application to Runway Overrun Zwirglmaier, Straub
435 Bayesian Networks to Quantify Transition Rates in Degradation Modeling: Application to a Set of Steel Bridges in the Netherlands Kosgodagan, Morales-Napoles, Maljaars, Yeung, Castanier

MS-3: Taming the Computational Complexity of Structure and Infrastructure Performance Assessment Metrics

178 Local Measures of Disruption for Quantifying Seismic Risk and Reliability of Complex Networks Baker, Miller, Markhvida
184 Efficient Post-hazard Probabilistic Flow Analysis of Water Pipe Networks Kang, Lee
497 Network Reliability Analysis for Cluster Connectivity Using AdaBoost Stern, Song, Work
379 The Computational Complexity of Probabilistic Interdependent Network Design Problems González, Dueñas-Osorio, Sánchez-Silva, Medaglia
635 Vulnerability Analysis of Interdependent Infrastructure Systems Galvan, Agarwal

MS-4: Risk Management of Natural Hazards

122 Assessing and Managing Natural Risks at the Panama Canal Alfaro, Baecher, Guerra, Patev
161 The Effect of Under-reporting of Non-fatal Involvements in Snow Avalanches on Vulnerability Jamieson, Jones
263 Quantifying the Effect of Early Warning Systems on Natural Hazard Risk Sättele, Bründl, Straub
364 Risk-based Optimization of Adaptable Protection Measures against Natural Hazards Spackova, Dittes, Straub
368 Flood Risk and Economically Optimal Safety Targets for Coastal Flood Defense Systems Dupuits, Schweckendiek
558 Using Random Simulation of Hurricane Tracks for Risk Analysis Garrè, Dudek
444 A Bayesian Network Approach to Coastal Storm Impact Modeling Jäger, Heijer, Bolle, Hanea
616 Cost-Benefit Assessment of Different Storm Mitigation Techniques for Residential Buildings using the PBHE Framework Unnikrishnan, Barbato
238 Economic Optimization Considerations in South African Dam Rehabilitations Viljoen, Reynolds

MS-5: Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Rainfall-induced Phenomena

317 Comparing Alternative Flood Mitigation Strategies for Non-engineered Masonry Structures using Demand and Capacity Factored Design Carozza, Jalayer, De Risi, Manfredi, Mbuya
324 Return Period Determination for Several Extreme Rainfall-induced Events using the IDF Relationship Obtained via Copulas Bezak, Šraj, Brilly, Mikoš
354 Fragility of Reinforced Concrete Framed Structures to Flow-type Landslides Parisi, Sabella, Galasso
397 A Compendium of Existing Vulnerability and Fragility Relationships for Flood: Preliminary Results Pregnolato, Galasso, Parisi
398 Analysis Of The Risk Of Transport Infrastructure Disruption From Extreme Rainfall Pregnolato, Ford, Dawson

MS-6: Structural Reliability and Probabilistic Modelling of Timber

363 Joint Earthquake-Snow Hazard Characterization and Fragility Analysis of Wood-frame Structures Wang, Rosowsky
265 Comparison of Two Reliability Assessment Methods for the Seismic Performance of Timber Steel Hybrid Structures Lam, Li, He, Li
266 Seismic Reliability Analyses of Timber-Steel-Hybrid System Zhang, Fairhurst, Tannert
370 Extension of Data Sets for a more Reliable Prediction of the Fire Resistance of Finger Joint Connections Fink, Klippel, Frangi
580 Optimal Design of New Deteriorating Timber Components under Climate Variations Bastidas-Arteaga, Aoues, Chateauneuf
210 Numerical Description of Size and Load Configuration Effects in Glulam Structures Frese, Blass
294 Duration-of-Load Effect on the Rolling Shear Strength of Cross Laminated Timber: Reliability Analysis and Duration-of-Load Strength Adjustment Factor Li, Lam
218 Serial Correlation of Withdrawal Properties from Axially-Loaded Self-Tapping Screws Brandner, Bratulic, Ringhofer
264 Impact of Growth Characteristics on the Fracture Perpendicular to the Grain of Timber Jockwer, Serrano, Gustafsson, Steiger
349 Aspects of Code-based Design of Timber Structures Köhler, Fink

MS-9: Surrogate Models for Uncertainty Quantification, Reliability Analysis and Robust Design

501 Data-Driven Polynomial Chaos Basis Estimation Spiridonakos, Chatzi
187 Polynomial Chaos Expansions for Damped Oscillators Mai, Sudret
244 Time-Variant Reliability Analysis using Polynomial Chaos Expansion Hawchar, El-Soueidy, Schoefs
159 Low-rank Tensor Approximations for Reliability Analysis Konakli, Sudret
442 Uncertainty Propagation in Seismic Reliability Evaluation of Aging Transportation Networks Rokneddin, Ghosh, Duenas-Osorio, Padgett
209 Compressive Polynomial Chaos Expansion for Multi Dimensional Model Maps Marelli, Sudret
116 Propagation of Uncertainties Modelled by Parametric p-boxes using Sparse Polynomial Chaos Expansions Schöbi, Sudret
612 Efficient Stochastic Simulation of Dynamic Brittle Strength Using a Random Perturbation-based Micromechanics Model Graham-Brady, Liu
220 A Sampling-based RBDO Algorithm with Local Refinement and Efficient Gradient Estimation Lacaze, Missoum, Brevault, Balesdent
529 Adaptive Kriging Reliability-based Design Optimization of an Automotive Body Structure under Crashworthiness Constraints Moustapha, Sudret, Bourinet, Guillaume
257 Adaptive Surrogate Model with Active Refinement Combining Kriging and a Trust Region Method Gaspar, Teixeira, Guedes Soares
152 Performance of Surrogate Modelling Techniques in Structural Reliability Kroetz, Beck
182 Reproducing Kernel-Based Support Vector Machine for Structural Reliability Analysis Lu, Li
223 Fusing Simulation Results from Multifidelity Aero-servo-elastic Simulators – Application to Extreme Loads on Wind Turbine Abdallah, Sudret, Lataniotis, Sørensen, Natarajan
573 Building Probability of Detection Curves via Metamodels Browne, Le Gratiet, Blatman, Cordeiro, Goursaud, Iooss, Maurice
145 Computational Simulation of Hydraulic Fracturing Nonlinear Dynamics using Gaussian Processes Surrogates Zio, Rochinha
439 Use of Kriging to Surrogate Finite Element Models of Bonded Double Cantilever Beams Sessa, Valoroso
365 Applications of Dynamic Trees to Sensitivity Analysis Becker

MS-10: Probabilistic Modeling and Impact Assessment of Cascading Geophysical Hazards

148 Seismic Risk Assessment of Mega-thrust Mw9-class Subduction Earthquakes and Aftershocks in Victoria, British Columbia, Canada Using Multi-variate Seismic Demand Models Goda, Tesfamariam
192 Coupled Simulation of Ground Shaking and Tsunami for Mega-thrust Subduction Earthquakes Goda, De Risi, Rossetto
197 Quantifying and Accounting for Aftershock Hazard in Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering van de Lindt, Nazari, Li
307 Towards Quantifying the Effect of Aftershocks in Seismic Risk Assessment Jalayer, Ebrahimian, Manfredi
330 Evaluating Desktop Methods for Assessing Liquefaction-Induced Damage to Infrastructure for the Insurance Sector Kongar, Rossetto, Giovinazzi

MS-11: Risk and Resilience Analysis of Infrastructure Systems

106 Risk, Resilience, and Sustainability Assessment of Infrastructure Systems in a Life-Cycle Context Considering Uncertainties Dong, Frangopol
163 Vulnerability Importance Measures Toward Resilience-Based Network Design Barker, Nicholson, Ramirez-Marquez
212 Identifying the Needs and Future Directions of Seismic Hazard for Probabilistic Infrastructure Risk Analysis Weatherill, Pagani
237 Stochastic Modeling of Recovery from Seismic Shocks Iervolino, Giorgio
276 Probabilistic Demand and Supply Resilience Model for Electric Power Supply System under Seismic Hazard Sun, Didier, Delé, Stojadinovic
309 Probabilistic Assessment of Increased Flooding Vulnerability in Christchurch City after the Canterbury 2010-2011 Earthquake Sequence, New Zealand Cavalieri, Franchin, Ko, Giovinazzi, Hart
343 Integrated Multi-Hazard Framework for the Fragility Analysis of Roadway Bridges Gehl, D’Ayala
344 Development of Empirical Vulnerability Curves for Electrical Supply Systems Subjected to Wind Hazard Dunn, Wilkinson, Galasso, Manning, Alderson
388 Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Infrastructure Networks Subjected to Hurricanes Scherb, Garrè, Straub
483 A Time-Dependent Seismic Resilience Analysis Approach for Networked Lifelines Paredes, Dueñas-Osorio
579 A Probabilistic Approach in Estimating Optimal Evacuation Scenarios for Seismic Emergency Management Zanini, Pellegrino, Rossi, Gastaldi, Modena
638 A Bayesian Network Model to Assess Seismic Risk of Reinforced Concrete Girder Bridges Franchin, Lupoi, Noto, Tesfamariam

MS-12: Bayesian Inference in Engineering: New Methods and Algorithms

103 Seismic Hazard Analysis with the Bayesian Approach Wang
194 Bayesian Assessment of the Compressive Strength of Structural Masonry Nagel, Mojsilovic, Sudret
396 Force Identification by Comparing Likelihood Function using Bayesian Filtering Methods Radhika
420 Uncertainty Management of Safety-Critical Systems: A Solution to the Back-Propagation Problem de Angelis, Patelli, Beer
478 Sparse Bayesian Learning with Gibbs Sampling for Structural Health Monitoring with Noisy Incomplete Modal Data Huang, Beck
494 A Dynamic Bayesian Network Framework for Risk Assessment of Systems Based on Sensor Measurements Tien, Pozzi, Der Kiureghian
576 Probabilistic Damage Identification of the Dowling Hall Footbridge through Hierarchical Bayesian Model Updating Behmanesh, Moaveni
479 Material Parameter Estimation in Distributed Plasticity FE Models Using the Unscented Kalman Filter Astroza, Ebrahimian, Conte

MS-13: Stochastic Dynamics and Simulation-based Techniques for Performance-based Earthquake Engineering

507 Energy-based Seismic Collapse Risk Assessment of Structures Deniz, Song, Hajjar
452 Illustrating a Bayesian Approach to Seismic Collapse Risk Assessment Gokkaya, Baker, Deierlein
236 Age- and State-Dependent Seismic Reliability of Structures Iervolino, Giorgio, Chioccarelli
146 Seismic Optimization of a Novel Tuned Sloshing Damper for the Chilean Region based on Life-cycle Cost Criteria Ruiz, Taflanidis, Lopez-Garcia
157 Nonlinear Stochastic Dynamic analysis for Performance-based Multi-objective Optimum Design Considering Life Cycle Seismic Loss Estimation Mitseas, Kougioumtzoglou, Beer
131 Structural System Response and Reliability Analysis under Incomplete Earthquake Records Comerford, Jensen, Beer, Mayorga, Kougioumtzoglou, Kusanovic
588 Probabilistic Hazard Model of Inelastic Oscillator based on Semi-theoretical Solutions of First Passage Problem Mori, Tahashima, Kojima, Ozaki
514 A Stochastic Dynamics Approach for Response Spectrum Analysis of Bilinear Systems using Time-dependent Equivalent Linear Properties Giaralis, Kougioumtzoglou
517 A View of Seismic Robustness Based on Uncertainty Vamvatsikos
336 A Nonlinear Wavelet Density-based Importance Sampling for Reliability Analysis Wang, Dai
581 Analytical Seismic Vulnerability Assessment for a Class of Modern Low-Rise Steel Frames Kazantzi, Vamvatsikos, Porter
639 Performance-Based Seismic Analysis of Light SDoF Secondary Substructures Kasinos, Palmeri, Lombardo
450 Seismic Intensity Measures for Probabilistic Demand Modeling of Rocking Rigid Components Hur, Shafieezadeh
577 Topology Optimization for Buildings in Seismic Zones within a PBEE Framework Bobby, Spence, Kareem

MS-14: Reliability and Risk Assessment of Pipelines

160 Estimating Event Probabilities using Zero Failure Data Breitung, Maes
172 Comparative Studies on Assessment of Corrosion Rates in Pipelines as Semi-Probabilistic and Fully Stochastic Values Opeyemi, Patelli, Beer, Timashev
653 Time-dependent Reliability Assessment for Corroding Pipelines Based on Imperfect Inspection Data Zhang, Kariyawasam, Zhou
252 Population-based Approach to Estimate Corrosion Growth in Pipelines Dann, Maes
251 Bayesian Approach to Estimate Corrosion Frowth From a Limited Set of Matched Features Dann, Huyse

MS-15: Reliability of Geotechnical Structures

504 Reliability-Based Geotechnical Design: Towards a Unified Theory Fenton, Naghibi, Griffiths
461 Effects of Spatial Soil Heterogeneities on Structural Behavior of a Steel Sheet Pile Yáñez-Godoy, Elachachi
532 On the Use of Spatially Averaged Shear Strength for the Bearing Capacity of a Shallow Foundation Ching, Hu, Phoon
291 Subset Simulation-based Random Finite Element Method for Slope Reliability Analysis and Risk Assessment Li, Xiao, Cao, Zhou
143 Determination of Soil Property Characteristic Values from Standard Penetration Tests Wang, Zhao, Cao
590 Variability of Allowable Bearing Capacity of Soft Soil Stabilized by End-bearing Deep Mixed Columns Zhang, Chen, Huang
634 Geotechnical Reliability-based Designs and Links with LRFD Low, Phoon
249 Model Uncertainty for the Capacity of Strip Footings under Negative and General Combined Loading Phoon, Tang
574 Effect of Correlation Structure Model on Geotechnical Reliability-based Serviceability Limit State Simulations Huffman, Stuedlein
429 Probabilistic Capacity Assessment of a Prestressed Concrete Pile in a Corrosive Marine Environment Schmuhl, Shafieezadeh, Hur
156 Levee Reliability Analysis Considering Different Failure Mechanisms – A Case Study (Gueishan Levee) in Southern Taiwan Huang, Yu
624 An Efficient Method to Compute the Failure Probability Gong, Juang, Martin, Zhang
475 Diagnosis of Earth-fill Dams by Synthesized Approach of Sounding and Surface Wave Method Nishimura, Shibata, Shuku
102 Bayesian Methods and Liquefaction Christian, Baecher
603 Single vs Multi-drain Probabilistic Analyses of Soil Consolidation via Prefabricated Vertical Drains Bari, Shahin, Soubra, (Presenter absent)

MS-16: Probability Density Evolution Theory and Its Applications

128 An Approximate Approach for Assessing the Reliability of a Stochastically Excited Softening Duffing Oscillator Zhang, Kougioumtzoglou
256 A New Probabilistic Model of Fully Non-Stationary Ground Motion and its Application Liu, Liu, Dan
459 A Random Field Representation Based on Stochastic Harmonic Functions Chen, He, Li
521 Physically-based Seismic Reliability Evaluation of Water Distribution Networks Liu, Sun, Li
530 A Phase Space Reconstruction Method for getting Instantaneous Probability Density Function of Nonlinear Stochastic Systems Jiang, Li
544 A Two-step Density Estimation Method and Its Applications Tao, Li
578 Stochastic Optimal Control of MR Damped Structures with Uncertain Parameters Peng, Yang, Li
593 Dynamic Response and Reliability of Tunnel under Earthquakes Yue, Ang

MS-17: Communicating Risk Under High Uncertainty: Developing Cross-disciplinary Knowledge

107 Communicating Risk in Major Incidents: the Public’s Perception Swan, Waring, Alison, Beer
113 Likelihood of Progressive Collapse of Buildings from Terrorist Attacks Stewart, Grant
137 A Clustering Approach to Identification of Seismic Building Damage Patterns for Concrete Structures Elwood, Corotis
190 Learning from Accidents: Analysis and Representation of Human Errors in Multi-attribute Events Moura, Beer, Lewis, Patelli
565 Risk Perception in Civil Engineering Applications Micic

MS-19: Risk-targeted Response Spectra for Seismic Design

583 Advances on Risk-targeted Hazard Estimation within the European Context Silva, Crowley, Bazzurro
584 Investigation of Structural Fragility for Risk-targeted Hazard Assessment Martins, Silva, Crowley, Bazzurro, Marques
637 Development of Earthquake Risk-Targeted Ground Motions for Indonesian Earthquake Resistance Building Code SNI 1726-2012 Sengara, Irsyam, Sidi, Mulia, Asrurifak, Hutabarat
404 Modifications to Risk-Targeted Seismic Design Maps for Subduction and Near-Fault Hazards Liel, Luco, Raghunandan, Champion
391 Reliability-Based Snow Load Maps for Building Design DeBock, Liel, Harris, Torrents
268 Environmental Contours for Determination of Seismic Design Response Spectra Loth, Baker

MS-20: Stochastic Earthquake Ground Motion Simulation, Validation, and Engineering Applications

127 Tuning of Record-based Stochastic Ground Motion Models for Hazard-compatibility and Applications to Seismic Risk Assessment Vetter, Taflanidis, Mavroeidis
162 A Fully Parametric Non-stationary Spectral-based Stochastic Ground Motion Model Vlachos, Deodatis, Papakonstantinou
185 Stochastic Ground Motion Simulation for Crustal Earthquakes in Japan Itoi
436 Simulation of Earthquake Ground Motions in The Eastern U.S. Using Physics-based and Stochastic Approaches Rezaeian, Hartzell, Sun, Mendoza
402 Validation of the Use of Synthetic Near-Fault Ground Motions to Estimate the Response of a Concrete Building in a Risk Assessment Framework Dabaghi, Galanis, Der Kiureghian, Moehle
270 Generation of Synthetic Accelerograms Compatible with a Set of Design Specifications Batou, Soize
445 Sensitivity of Ground Motion Simulation Validation Criteria to Filtering Khoshnevis, Taborda
533 Response of Buried Pipes Taking into Account Seismic and Soil Spatial Variabilities Elachachi, Yanez-Godoy
550 Conditional Simulation of Spatially Variable Motions on 2D Grid Ancheta, Stewart

MS-21: Advances and Outlooks in Seismic Risk Analysis

380 Influence of Failure Modes of RC Columns on Simplified Seismic Loss Assessment De Luca, Galasso
320 Spectral Shape Proxies and Simplified Fragility Analysis of Mid-rise Reinforced Concrete Buildings Minas, Galasso, Rossetto
258 Building Performance Loss After Damaging Earthquakes: An Investigation Towards Reparability Decisions Gaetani d’Aragona, Polese, Elwood, Baradaran Shoraka, Prota, Manfredi
513 Fragility Functions for Pipeline in Liquefiable Sand: A Case Study on the Groningen Gas Network Miraglia, Courage, Meijers

MS-22: Probabilistic Aspects of System Identification and Health Monitoring

455 Message-passing Sequential Detection of Multiple Structural Damages Liao, Rajagopal
202 A Comparison of Unscented and Extended Kalman Filtering for Nonlinear System Identification Al-Hussein, Haldar
261 Identification Uncertainty of Close Modes in Operational Modal Analysis Zhu, Au, Jones

MS-23: Robust, Performance-based and Reliability-based Optimization Under Uncertainty

134 Design of Floor Isolation Systems Through Multi-objective Criteria for Seismic Risk Performance Gidaris, Taflanidis, Lopez-Garcia, Mavroeidis
151 Optimization of Non-linear Truss Considering Expected Consequences of Failure Pedrosa, Beck
215 Risk Optimization of Trusses Using a New Gradient Estimation Method Gomes
275 Topology Optimization of Linear Structural System Under Stationary Stochastic Excitation Zhu, Yang, Shields, Guest
359 Approximating Sensitivity of Failure Probability in Reliability-Based Design Optimization Liu, Paulino, Gardoni
464 Risk Measures in Engineering Design under Uncertainty Rockafellar, Royset
465 The SL-AVV Approach to System Level Reliability-Based Design Optimization of Large Uncertain and Stochastic Dynamic Systems Spence
495 Topology Optimization of Structures under Constraints on First Passage Probability Chun, Song, Paulino
526 Probabilistic Performance-based Optimum Seismic Design with Application to the California High-Speed Rail Prototype Bridge Li, Conte
537 A Framework for Performance-Based Optimization of Structural Robustness Marjanishvili, Katz
538 Reliability-based Design of Tuned Mass-Damper-Inerter (TMDI) Equipped Multi-storey Frame Buildings under Seismic Excitation Giaralis, Taflanidis
594 Efficient Optimal Design-Under-Uncertainty of Passive Structural Control Devices De, Wojtkiewicz, Johnson
615 Reliability-based Maintenance Optimization of Pipelines Considering Space-variant Corrosion Rate Sahraoui, Chateauneuf, Khelif

MS-24: Advanced Simulation Methods for Probabilistic Analysis of Complex Engineering Problems

139 Simulation of Strongly Non-Gaussian and Non-stationary Stochastic Processes by Karhunen-Loeve Expansion Kim, Shields
245 Efficient Monte Carlo Algorithm for Rare Failure Event Simulation Patelli, Au
255 Rare Event Simulation: A Point Process Interpretation with Application in Probability and Quantile Estimation Walter, Defaux
456 Resource Allocation and Uncertainty when Modeling Infrastructure Networks as Socio-technical Systems Gómez, Sánchez-Silva, Dueñas-Osorio

MS-25: Recent Developments in Reliability and Cost Prediction of Building Inventories and Civil Infrastructure Systems

651 A Framework to Develop Community Resilience Performance Goals and Assessment Metrics for Decision Making McAllister
142 Preliminary Extension of First Order Reliability Methods for Combined Seismic and Wind Hazard Loss Estimation for a Portfolio of Buildings Corotis, Bonstrom
179 Multi-Objective Community-Level Seismic Retrofit Optimization for Resiliency using Engineering and Socioeconomic Variables Jennings, van de Lindt, Peek
225 Disaggregating Community Resilience Objectives to Achieve building Performance Goals Wang, Ellingwood
274 Quantification of Resilience improvements for Critical Facilities through Advanced Technologies Cimellaro, Terzic, Mahin
399 A Case-study on Scenario-based Probabilistic Seismic Loss Assessment for a Portfolio of Bridges Miano, Jalayer, De Risi, Prota, Manfredi
425 Integrated Spatial Community Resilience Decision Tool Unifying Social Vulnerability Indices and Relative Sea-Level Rise Predictions Francis, Esfandiary
443 Efficient Computational Models for the Optimal Representation of Correlated Regional Hazard Christou, Bocchini
650 Stochastic Renewal Process Models for Life Cycle Cost and Utility Analysis Pandey, Cheng, Wang
119 Reliability-Based Progressive Collapse and Redundancy Analysis of Suspension Bridges Yang, Ghosn

MS-26: Value of Information in Civil Engineering

135 Pre-posterior Optimization of Sequence of Measurement and Intervention Actions under Structural Reliability Constraint Goulet, Der Kiureghian, Li
188 Parameter Study on Optimal Sampling Planning based on Value of Information Yoshida
224 A Bayesian Change Point Model to Detect Changes in Event Occurrence Rates, with Application to Induced Seismicity Gupta, Baker
243 Value of Information in Retrofitting of Flood Defenses Schweckendiek, Vrouwenvelder
273 Value of Information on the Risk/Benefit of Infrastructrure under Strong Winds in Mexico De Leon, Lopez, Esteva
605 Quantification of the Value of Structural Health Monitoring Information for Fatigue Deteriorating Structural Systems Thöns, Schneider, Faber
617 On the Value of SHM in the Context of Service Life Integrity Management Qin, Thöns, Faber

MS-27: Life Cycle Based Design and Optimization of Structural Systems under Uncertainty

214 Bayesian Updated Time-Dependent Chloride-Induced Corrosion Assessment Using Redundancy Factors Botte, Caspeele, Taerwe
108 Role of Uncertainty in Life-Cycle Design of Concrete Structures Biondini, Frangopol
205 Ethical Discounting for Intergenerational Life-cycle Risk Assessment Lee, Ellingwood
123 Life-cycle System Performance of Bridges: A Robustness-based Approach Cavaco, Casas, Neves
259 Optimization of Inspection Plans for Structures Submitted to Non-stationary Stochastic Degradation Processes Decatoire, Elachachi, Yalamas, Schoefs
230 Travel Time Reliability Based Bridge Network Maintenance Optimization under Budget Constraint Zhang, Cao, Wang
502 Prediction of Creep and Shrinkage based on Gamma Process Models Strauss, Wendner, Vidovic, Zambon, Frangopol
394 Probabilistic Model for Ageing Masonry Walls Micic, Asenov

MS-28: Predicting and Adapting to Climate Change

271 Implications of Hurricane-Sea Surface Temperature Relationship Mudd, Letchford, Rosowsky
408 Statistical Investigation of Extreme Weather Conditions Proske
254 Reliability of Extreme Wave Prediction Methods Barker, Murphy, Pakrashi
114 Cost-Effective Design and Maintenance of Timber Power Distribution Poles in a Changing Climate Ryan, Stewart, Spencer
458 Addressing Uncertainty in Ensemble Sea-Level Rise Predictions Thomas, Lin
606 Reliability Based Design Optimization of Insulation Systems Considering Climate Change and Workmanship Uncertainties Aïssani, Chateauneuf, Fontaine
158 Dynamic Restricted Equilibrium Model to Determine Statistically the Resilience of a Traffic Network to Extreme Weather Events Nogal, Martinez-Pastor, O’Connor, Caulfield
338 Quantifying the Impact of Critical Infrastructure Failure due to Extreme Weather Events OBrien, Hajializadeh, Power
419 A Markov Regime-Switching Framework Application for Describing El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Patterns Cárdenas Gallo, Sánchez-Silva, Akhavan-Tabatabaei, Bastidas-Arteaga