This collection of papers is the proceedings of ICASP12, the 12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering held in Vancouver, Canada on July 12-15, 2015. The papers are published in cIRcle, the Digital Repository of the University of British Columbia, and each paper is assigned a digital object identifier, DOI. To find the DOI for a specific paper, click on that paper below to open it and then scroll down to the metadata. You may also notice the metadata inaccurately says that the papers are “Unreviewed.” That is because the “Reviewed” label is reserved for journal papers; in actuality abstracts and full papers were peer reviewed. 556 abstracts were submitted, 430 abstracts were accepted, 371 papers were accepted, and 290 papers were ultimately published. If you prefer to reference this collection by an ISBN number then the book of ICASP12 papers has the ISBN number 978-0-88865-245-4. If you have any questions, please contact the editor T. Haukaas at terje@civil.ubc.ca.
GS-1: Probabilistic Models
| 297 | Inter-relationship between Physical-Chemical Processes and Extreme Value Modelling | Melchers |
| 180 | Prediction of Water Mains Failure – A Bayesian Approach | Kabir, Tesfamariam, Sadiq |
| 356 | Dimension Reduction Methods for Reliability Problems | Breitung |
| 484 | Hierarchical Modeling of Systems with Similar Components | Memarzadeh, Pozzi, Kolter |
| 154 | Improved Probability Distribution Models for Seismic Fragility Assessment | Qin, Mackie, Stojadinovic |
| 575 | Pedestrian Bridges Monitoring Data for Stochastic Modelling of Human-induced Loads | Casciati, Casciati, Faravelli |
| 557 | Nanomechanics Based Theory of Size Effect on Strength, Lifetime and Residual Strength Distributions of Quasibrittle Failure: A Review | Salviato, Kirane, Bazant |
| 656 | On a Newly Developed Estimator for More Accurate Modeling with an Application to Civil Engineering | Habibullah, Shan-E-Fatima |
| 384 | The Role of Fiber Volume Fraction in Tensile Strength of Fibrous Composites | Rypl, Vorechovsky, Chudoba |
GS-3: Reliability Methods
| 536 | Application of the Multiplicative Dimensional Reduction Method (M-DRM) to a Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Problem | Raimbault, Walbridge, Pandey |
| 358 | Targeted Random Sampling for Time-invariant Reliability Analysis | Shields, Sundar |
| 389 | Estimation of the Failure Probability of a Floating Wind Turbine under Environmental Load | Murangira, Munoz Zuniga, Perdrizet |
| 598 | Nonlinear Combination of Multiple Environmental Design Parameters Based on FORM Algorithms | Leira |
| 648 | Improved Formulation of Audze-Eglajs Criterion for Space-filling Designs | Vořechovský, Eliáš |
| 453 | Importance Sampling in the Evaluation and Optimization of Buffered Failure Probability | Harajli, Rockafellar, Royset |
GS-5: System Reliability Analysis
| 281 | Reliability and Controllability of Infrastructure Networks: Do They Match? | Li, Dueñas-Osorio, Chen |
| 314 | Reliability Analysis of Systems Based on Survival Signature | Feng, Patelli, Beer |
| 353 | Systems Reliability of Flow Control in Dam Safety | Komey, Deng, Baecher, Zielinski, Atkinson |
| 493 | Fragility Curves of Restoration Processes for Resilience Analysis | Barberis, Malavisi, Cimellaro, Mahin |
GS-7: Uncertainty Analysis
| 390 | Uncertainty Quantification of Heavy Gas Release Over a Barrier | Shoeibi Omrani, O’Mahoney, Mack, Witteveen |
| 622 | Influence on Structural Reliability of Uncertainty in Estimated Extreme Values of Load-Effects | Reid, Naess |
| 646 | Small-sample Probabilistic Simulation Software Tool FReET | Novak, Vořechovský |
GS-8: Probabilistic Finite Element Analysis / GS-9: Sensitivity Analysis
| 200 | Finite Element Reliability Analysis of Structures using the Dimensional Reduction Method | Balomenos, Pandey |
| 133 | Stochastic Multi-scale Finite Element Analysis for Laminated Composite Plates | Zhou, Gosling |
| 357 | Sensitivity Analysis of Fluid-Structure Interaction using the PFEM | Zhu, Scott |
| 279 | Random Field Modelling for the Prediction of Wall Thickness of Nuclear Pipes Considering Data Misalignment | Adegbola, Yuan, Wang |
GS-10: Random Vibrations and Stochastic Processes
| 331 | Simulation of Narrowband Non-Gaussian Processes Using Envelope Distribution | Tsuchida, Kimura |
| 437 | A Constrained Nonlinear Stochastic Optimal Control for Dynamical Systems | El-Khoury, Shafieezadeh |
| 566 | The Moment Equation Closure Method Revisited through the Use of Complex Fractional Moments | Alotta, Bucher, Di Matteo, Di Paola, Pirrotta |
| 642 | Random Vibration of Arbitrarily Supported Single-span Beams Subject to Random Moving Loads | Caprani |
GS-12: Hazard Analysis
| 323 | A Multi Hazard Risk Assessment Methodology Accounting for Cascading Hazard Events | Ní Choine, O’Connor, Gehl, D’Ayala, García-Fernández, Jiménez, Gavin, Van Gelder, Salceda, Power |
| 387 | Application of Region of Influence Approach to Estimate Extreme Snow Load for a Northeastern Province in China | Mo, Fan, Hong |
| 440 | An Improved Approach for Aftershock Hazard Assessment | Muderrisoğlu, Yazgan |
| 520 | Reliability-based Seismic Hazard Analysis | Rahimi, Mahsuli, Bakhshi |
GS-13: Damage and Deterioration
| 428 | The Continuous Wavelet Transform as a Stochastic Process for Damage Detection | Balafas, Rajagopal, Kiremidjian |
| 318 | Life-cycle Robustness: Quantification and Challenges | Wendner, Tamparopoulos, Bergmeister |
| 415 | A Unified Formalism For Modeling And Reliability Estimation Of Degrading Systems | Riascos-Ochoa, Sánchez-Silva, Klutke |
| 597 | Reliability of Corroded Pipelines Accounting for System Effects | Leira, Næss, Brandrud Næss |
| 654 | Evaluation of Structural Reliability for Reinforced Concrete Buildings Exposed to Corrosion | Carrillo-Bueno, Ruiz, Tolentino |
GS-15: Earthquake Engineering
| 147 | Probabilistic Reliability Assessment of Real-Time Hybrid Simulation of Structures with Degradation | Ryan, Chen, Richardson |
| 250 | Development of Stochastic Heterogeneous Slip Distribution Model for Simulation of Earthquake Ground Motion | Abe, Sekimura, Itoi |
| 321 | Load Combination of Aftershocks and Tsunami for Tsunami-resistant Design | Choi, Nishida, Itoi, Takada |
| 337 | Shaking Table Experiment of Fault-Tolerant Seismic Vibration Control of a Building Based on Sensor Reliability | Tanaka, Kohiyama |
| 492 | Probabilistic Analysis of Soil-Structure Interaction | Mirzaie, Mahsuli, Ghannad |
GS-17: Wind Engineering
| 124 | Variability of Time Independent Wind Load Components | Botha, Retief, Viljoen |
| 199 | An Agent-based Framework for Modeling the Effectiveness of Hurricane Mitigation Incentives | Pei, Pang, Testik, Ravichandran |
| 248 | Fatigue Reliability of Casted Wind Turbine Components due to Defects | Mirzaei Rafsanjani, Sørensen |
| 282 | System Reliability of Suspension Bridges Considering Static Divergence and Flutter | Øiseth, Rønnquist, Naess |
| 373 | Reducing Wind Turbine Load Simulation Uncertainties by Means of a Constrained Gaussian Turbulence Field | Dimitrov, Lazarov |
| 525 | Application of the Box-Cox Power Transformation in Extreme Value Analysis of Wind Speed | Hong |
| 636 | Reliability Assessment of Wind Turbines | Sørensen |
| 476 | Analytical Damage Quantification Method for Residential Developments Subjected to Hurricane Wind Hazards | Grayson, Pang |
| 372 | Multivariate Modelling of Extreme Load Combinations for Wind Turbines | Dimitrov |
GS-18: Risk-based Optimization / GS-20: Decision-making
| 618 | Protocols for Communication and Governance of Risks | Vrouwenvelder, Lind, Faber |
| 620 | On the Regulation of Life Safety Risk | Faber, Sørensen, Vrouwenvelder |
| 111 | A Reliability-Based Optimization Scheme for Maintenance Management in Large-Scale Bridge Networks | Hu, Daganzo, Madanat |
| 316 | Optimization of Future Drinking Water Pipe Renewal under Uncertainty | Large, Tomasian, Elachachi, Le Gat, Renaud, Breysse |
GS-19: Risk Assessment and Management
| 277 | Probabilistic Treatment of Storm Rotation and Wind-driven Rain Deposition in a Hurricane Model | Johnson, Pinelli, Cocke |
| 333 | Pushover-Based Loss Estimation of Masonry Buildings with Consideration of Uncertainties | Snoj, Dolšek |
| 426 | Risk Management of Multi-State Multi-Component Bridge Systems Using a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process | Shafieezadeh, Fereshtehnejad |
| 438 | Application of a Scenario-Based Assessment Framework for the Seismic Resilience of Seaports | Ivey Burden, Shafieezadeh |
GS-21: Maintenance and Inspection
| 247 | A Condition-based Maintenance Policy based on a Probabilistic Meta-model in the case of Chloride-induced Corrosion | El Hajj, Castanier, Schoefs, Bastidas-Arteaga, Yeung |
| 272 | Incorporating Network Considerations into Pavement Management Systems | Medury, Madanat |
| 332 | Probability of Detection of Potential Mapping and its Impact on Service Life Prediction | Kessler, Gehlen |
| 407 | Life-cycle Maintenance, Monitoring, and Inspection Optimization for Ship Structures under Uncertainty | Soliman, Frangopol, Mondoro |
GS-23: Bridge Engineering
| 226 | Probabilistic Fatigue Life Prediction for Bridges Using System Reliability Analysis and SHM-based Finite Element Model Updating | Lee, Cho |
| 239 | Estimating Characteristic Bridge Traffic Load Effects Using Bayesian Statistics | Leahy, OBrien, Enright, Power |
| 298 | System Fragility Curves for a Long Multi-Frame Bridge under Differential Support Motions | Jeon, Shafieezadeh, DesRoches |
| 367 | Time-Dependent Fatigue Reliability Assessment of Ting Kau Bridge Based on Weigh-In-Motion Data | Zhang, Au |
GS-24: Special Structures
| 221 | Fragility Assessment of Above Ground Petroleum Storage Tanks under Storm Surge | Kameshwar, Padgett |
| 423 | Vulnerability Analysis of Transmission Towers subjected to Unbalanced Ice Loads | Rezaei, Chouinard, Legeron, Langlois |
| 424 | Life Cycle Cost-Benefit Evaluation of Self-centering and Conventional Concentrically Braced Frames | Dyanati, Huang, Roke |
| 633 | Stochastic Dynamic Analysis of a Marine Riser using the First-Order Reliability Method | Alibrandi, Koh |
GS-25: Code Calibration
| 231 | Reliability-based Calibration of Partial Safety Factors for Wave Energy Converters | Ambühl, Kramer, Sørensen |
| 246 | Defining a Braking Probability to Estimate Extreme Braking Forces on Road Bridges | Martins, Fénart, Feltrin, Dumont, Beyer |
| 171 | On Standardization of the Reliability Basis of Structural Design | Holicky, Retief, Diamantidis, Viljoen |
| 621 | Calibration of Partial Safety Factors for Fatigue Design of Steel Bridges | D’Angelo, Faber, Nussbaumer |
| 522 | Determination of Target Safety for Structures | Holicky, Diamantidis, Sykora |
GS-26: Applications
| 472 | Strategies for Separation of Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties | Koduru |
| 433 | Shake Table Tests of Stochastic Optimal Polynomial Control of Two Span Bridge Equipped with MR Dampers | El-Khoury, Kim, Shafieezadeh, Hur, Heo |
| 655 | Evaluation of Decisions to Rehabilitate South African Dams in terms of the ANCOLD ALARP Criterion and SWTP for Human Safety | Viljoen, Reynolds |
| 341 | Application of Expert Judgment to the Quantification of a Damage Scale for Reinforced Concrete Buildings Exposed to Fire | Ioannou, Rush, Bisby, Aspinall, Rossetto |
| 361 | Characterization of Measurement Uncertainties in Crack Profiles Assessed by In-Line Inspection Tools | Koduru, Lu, Skow |
MS-1: Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs for Engineering Risk Analysis
| 528 | Parameter Identification In Chloride Ingress From Accelerated Test Using Bayesian Network | Tran, Bastidas-Arteaga, Bonnet, Schoefs |
| 125 | Prediction of Soil Corrosivity Index: A Bayesian Belief Network Approach | Demissie, Tesfamariam, Sadiq |
| 405 | Operational Modal Analysis using Variational Bayes | Li, Der Kiureghian |
| 400 | Bayesian Networks for Model Updating and Inspection Support of Marine Structures Subject to Fatigue | Groden, Collette |
| 155 | Enhanced Bayesian Networks approach to Risk Assessment of Spent Fuel Ponds | Tolo, Patelli, Beer, Broggi |
| 434 | Simulation-Based Analysis of Reconfigurable System of System Network Topologies for Resilience Using Bayesian Networks | Francis |
| 491 | Probabilistic Modeling of System Deterioration with Inspection and Monitoring Data using Bayesian Networks | Luque, Straub |
| 541 | Sensor Network Optimization using Bayesian Networks, Decision Graphs, and Value of Information | Malings, Pozzi |
| 489 | A Data Fusion Probabilistic Model for Hurricane-Induced Outages in Electric Power Grids | Mensah, Dueñas-Osorio |
| 207 | Risk-based Decision Making for Deterioration Processes Using POMDP | Nielsen, Sørensen |
| 121 | The Assessment of the Reliability of Potentially Deteriorated Reinforced Concrete Elements with Bayesian Networks | Hackl, Kohler |
| 269 | Bayesian Networks in Levee System Reliability | Roscoe, Hanea |
| 460 | Compression and Inference Algorithms for Bayesian Network Modeling of Infrastructure Systems | Tien, Der Kiureghian |
| 313 | Discretization of Structural Reliability Problems: An Application to Runway Overrun | Zwirglmaier, Straub |
| 435 | Bayesian Networks to Quantify Transition Rates in Degradation Modeling: Application to a Set of Steel Bridges in the Netherlands | Kosgodagan, Morales-Napoles, Maljaars, Yeung, Castanier |
MS-3: Taming the Computational Complexity of Structure and Infrastructure Performance Assessment Metrics
| 178 | Local Measures of Disruption for Quantifying Seismic Risk and Reliability of Complex Networks | Baker, Miller, Markhvida |
| 184 | Efficient Post-hazard Probabilistic Flow Analysis of Water Pipe Networks | Kang, Lee |
| 497 | Network Reliability Analysis for Cluster Connectivity Using AdaBoost | Stern, Song, Work |
| 379 | The Computational Complexity of Probabilistic Interdependent Network Design Problems | González, Dueñas-Osorio, Sánchez-Silva, Medaglia |
| 635 | Vulnerability Analysis of Interdependent Infrastructure Systems | Galvan, Agarwal |
MS-4: Risk Management of Natural Hazards
| 122 | Assessing and Managing Natural Risks at the Panama Canal | Alfaro, Baecher, Guerra, Patev |
| 161 | The Effect of Under-reporting of Non-fatal Involvements in Snow Avalanches on Vulnerability | Jamieson, Jones |
| 263 | Quantifying the Effect of Early Warning Systems on Natural Hazard Risk | Sättele, Bründl, Straub |
| 364 | Risk-based Optimization of Adaptable Protection Measures against Natural Hazards | Spackova, Dittes, Straub |
| 368 | Flood Risk and Economically Optimal Safety Targets for Coastal Flood Defense Systems | Dupuits, Schweckendiek |
| 558 | Using Random Simulation of Hurricane Tracks for Risk Analysis | Garrè, Dudek |
| 444 | A Bayesian Network Approach to Coastal Storm Impact Modeling | Jäger, Heijer, Bolle, Hanea |
| 616 | Cost-Benefit Assessment of Different Storm Mitigation Techniques for Residential Buildings using the PBHE Framework | Unnikrishnan, Barbato |
| 238 | Economic Optimization Considerations in South African Dam Rehabilitations | Viljoen, Reynolds |
MS-5: Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Rainfall-induced Phenomena
| 317 | Comparing Alternative Flood Mitigation Strategies for Non-engineered Masonry Structures using Demand and Capacity Factored Design | Carozza, Jalayer, De Risi, Manfredi, Mbuya |
| 324 | Return Period Determination for Several Extreme Rainfall-induced Events using the IDF Relationship Obtained via Copulas | Bezak, Šraj, Brilly, Mikoš |
| 354 | Fragility of Reinforced Concrete Framed Structures to Flow-type Landslides | Parisi, Sabella, Galasso |
| 397 | A Compendium of Existing Vulnerability and Fragility Relationships for Flood: Preliminary Results | Pregnolato, Galasso, Parisi |
| 398 | Analysis Of The Risk Of Transport Infrastructure Disruption From Extreme Rainfall | Pregnolato, Ford, Dawson |
MS-6: Structural Reliability and Probabilistic Modelling of Timber
| 363 | Joint Earthquake-Snow Hazard Characterization and Fragility Analysis of Wood-frame Structures | Wang, Rosowsky |
| 265 | Comparison of Two Reliability Assessment Methods for the Seismic Performance of Timber Steel Hybrid Structures | Lam, Li, He, Li |
| 266 | Seismic Reliability Analyses of Timber-Steel-Hybrid System | Zhang, Fairhurst, Tannert |
| 370 | Extension of Data Sets for a more Reliable Prediction of the Fire Resistance of Finger Joint Connections | Fink, Klippel, Frangi |
| 580 | Optimal Design of New Deteriorating Timber Components under Climate Variations | Bastidas-Arteaga, Aoues, Chateauneuf |
| 210 | Numerical Description of Size and Load Configuration Effects in Glulam Structures | Frese, Blass |
| 294 | Duration-of-Load Effect on the Rolling Shear Strength of Cross Laminated Timber: Reliability Analysis and Duration-of-Load Strength Adjustment Factor | Li, Lam |
| 218 | Serial Correlation of Withdrawal Properties from Axially-Loaded Self-Tapping Screws | Brandner, Bratulic, Ringhofer |
| 264 | Impact of Growth Characteristics on the Fracture Perpendicular to the Grain of Timber | Jockwer, Serrano, Gustafsson, Steiger |
| 349 | Aspects of Code-based Design of Timber Structures | Köhler, Fink |
MS-9: Surrogate Models for Uncertainty Quantification, Reliability Analysis and Robust Design
| 501 | Data-Driven Polynomial Chaos Basis Estimation | Spiridonakos, Chatzi |
| 187 | Polynomial Chaos Expansions for Damped Oscillators | Mai, Sudret |
| 244 | Time-Variant Reliability Analysis using Polynomial Chaos Expansion | Hawchar, El-Soueidy, Schoefs |
| 159 | Low-rank Tensor Approximations for Reliability Analysis | Konakli, Sudret |
| 442 | Uncertainty Propagation in Seismic Reliability Evaluation of Aging Transportation Networks | Rokneddin, Ghosh, Duenas-Osorio, Padgett |
| 209 | Compressive Polynomial Chaos Expansion for Multi Dimensional Model Maps | Marelli, Sudret |
| 116 | Propagation of Uncertainties Modelled by Parametric p-boxes using Sparse Polynomial Chaos Expansions | Schöbi, Sudret |
| 612 | Efficient Stochastic Simulation of Dynamic Brittle Strength Using a Random Perturbation-based Micromechanics Model | Graham-Brady, Liu |
| 220 | A Sampling-based RBDO Algorithm with Local Refinement and Efficient Gradient Estimation | Lacaze, Missoum, Brevault, Balesdent |
| 529 | Adaptive Kriging Reliability-based Design Optimization of an Automotive Body Structure under Crashworthiness Constraints | Moustapha, Sudret, Bourinet, Guillaume |
| 257 | Adaptive Surrogate Model with Active Refinement Combining Kriging and a Trust Region Method | Gaspar, Teixeira, Guedes Soares |
| 152 | Performance of Surrogate Modelling Techniques in Structural Reliability | Kroetz, Beck |
| 182 | Reproducing Kernel-Based Support Vector Machine for Structural Reliability Analysis | Lu, Li |
| 223 | Fusing Simulation Results from Multifidelity Aero-servo-elastic Simulators – Application to Extreme Loads on Wind Turbine | Abdallah, Sudret, Lataniotis, Sørensen, Natarajan |
| 573 | Building Probability of Detection Curves via Metamodels | Browne, Le Gratiet, Blatman, Cordeiro, Goursaud, Iooss, Maurice |
| 145 | Computational Simulation of Hydraulic Fracturing Nonlinear Dynamics using Gaussian Processes Surrogates | Zio, Rochinha |
| 439 | Use of Kriging to Surrogate Finite Element Models of Bonded Double Cantilever Beams | Sessa, Valoroso |
| 365 | Applications of Dynamic Trees to Sensitivity Analysis | Becker |
MS-10: Probabilistic Modeling and Impact Assessment of Cascading Geophysical Hazards
| 148 | Seismic Risk Assessment of Mega-thrust Mw9-class Subduction Earthquakes and Aftershocks in Victoria, British Columbia, Canada Using Multi-variate Seismic Demand Models | Goda, Tesfamariam |
| 192 | Coupled Simulation of Ground Shaking and Tsunami for Mega-thrust Subduction Earthquakes | Goda, De Risi, Rossetto |
| 197 | Quantifying and Accounting for Aftershock Hazard in Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering | van de Lindt, Nazari, Li |
| 307 | Towards Quantifying the Effect of Aftershocks in Seismic Risk Assessment | Jalayer, Ebrahimian, Manfredi |
| 330 | Evaluating Desktop Methods for Assessing Liquefaction-Induced Damage to Infrastructure for the Insurance Sector | Kongar, Rossetto, Giovinazzi |
MS-11: Risk and Resilience Analysis of Infrastructure Systems
| 106 | Risk, Resilience, and Sustainability Assessment of Infrastructure Systems in a Life-Cycle Context Considering Uncertainties | Dong, Frangopol |
| 163 | Vulnerability Importance Measures Toward Resilience-Based Network Design | Barker, Nicholson, Ramirez-Marquez |
| 212 | Identifying the Needs and Future Directions of Seismic Hazard for Probabilistic Infrastructure Risk Analysis | Weatherill, Pagani |
| 237 | Stochastic Modeling of Recovery from Seismic Shocks | Iervolino, Giorgio |
| 276 | Probabilistic Demand and Supply Resilience Model for Electric Power Supply System under Seismic Hazard | Sun, Didier, Delé, Stojadinovic |
| 309 | Probabilistic Assessment of Increased Flooding Vulnerability in Christchurch City after the Canterbury 2010-2011 Earthquake Sequence, New Zealand | Cavalieri, Franchin, Ko, Giovinazzi, Hart |
| 343 | Integrated Multi-Hazard Framework for the Fragility Analysis of Roadway Bridges | Gehl, D’Ayala |
| 344 | Development of Empirical Vulnerability Curves for Electrical Supply Systems Subjected to Wind Hazard | Dunn, Wilkinson, Galasso, Manning, Alderson |
| 388 | Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Infrastructure Networks Subjected to Hurricanes | Scherb, Garrè, Straub |
| 483 | A Time-Dependent Seismic Resilience Analysis Approach for Networked Lifelines | Paredes, Dueñas-Osorio |
| 579 | A Probabilistic Approach in Estimating Optimal Evacuation Scenarios for Seismic Emergency Management | Zanini, Pellegrino, Rossi, Gastaldi, Modena |
| 638 | A Bayesian Network Model to Assess Seismic Risk of Reinforced Concrete Girder Bridges | Franchin, Lupoi, Noto, Tesfamariam |
MS-12: Bayesian Inference in Engineering: New Methods and Algorithms
| 103 | Seismic Hazard Analysis with the Bayesian Approach | Wang |
| 194 | Bayesian Assessment of the Compressive Strength of Structural Masonry | Nagel, Mojsilovic, Sudret |
| 396 | Force Identification by Comparing Likelihood Function using Bayesian Filtering Methods | Radhika |
| 420 | Uncertainty Management of Safety-Critical Systems: A Solution to the Back-Propagation Problem | de Angelis, Patelli, Beer |
| 478 | Sparse Bayesian Learning with Gibbs Sampling for Structural Health Monitoring with Noisy Incomplete Modal Data | Huang, Beck |
| 494 | A Dynamic Bayesian Network Framework for Risk Assessment of Systems Based on Sensor Measurements | Tien, Pozzi, Der Kiureghian |
| 576 | Probabilistic Damage Identification of the Dowling Hall Footbridge through Hierarchical Bayesian Model Updating | Behmanesh, Moaveni |
| 479 | Material Parameter Estimation in Distributed Plasticity FE Models Using the Unscented Kalman Filter | Astroza, Ebrahimian, Conte |
MS-13: Stochastic Dynamics and Simulation-based Techniques for Performance-based Earthquake Engineering
| 507 | Energy-based Seismic Collapse Risk Assessment of Structures | Deniz, Song, Hajjar |
| 452 | Illustrating a Bayesian Approach to Seismic Collapse Risk Assessment | Gokkaya, Baker, Deierlein |
| 236 | Age- and State-Dependent Seismic Reliability of Structures | Iervolino, Giorgio, Chioccarelli |
| 146 | Seismic Optimization of a Novel Tuned Sloshing Damper for the Chilean Region based on Life-cycle Cost Criteria | Ruiz, Taflanidis, Lopez-Garcia |
| 157 | Nonlinear Stochastic Dynamic analysis for Performance-based Multi-objective Optimum Design Considering Life Cycle Seismic Loss Estimation | Mitseas, Kougioumtzoglou, Beer |
| 131 | Structural System Response and Reliability Analysis under Incomplete Earthquake Records | Comerford, Jensen, Beer, Mayorga, Kougioumtzoglou, Kusanovic |
| 588 | Probabilistic Hazard Model of Inelastic Oscillator based on Semi-theoretical Solutions of First Passage Problem | Mori, Tahashima, Kojima, Ozaki |
| 514 | A Stochastic Dynamics Approach for Response Spectrum Analysis of Bilinear Systems using Time-dependent Equivalent Linear Properties | Giaralis, Kougioumtzoglou |
| 517 | A View of Seismic Robustness Based on Uncertainty | Vamvatsikos |
| 336 | A Nonlinear Wavelet Density-based Importance Sampling for Reliability Analysis | Wang, Dai |
| 581 | Analytical Seismic Vulnerability Assessment for a Class of Modern Low-Rise Steel Frames | Kazantzi, Vamvatsikos, Porter |
| 639 | Performance-Based Seismic Analysis of Light SDoF Secondary Substructures | Kasinos, Palmeri, Lombardo |
| 450 | Seismic Intensity Measures for Probabilistic Demand Modeling of Rocking Rigid Components | Hur, Shafieezadeh |
| 577 | Topology Optimization for Buildings in Seismic Zones within a PBEE Framework | Bobby, Spence, Kareem |
MS-14: Reliability and Risk Assessment of Pipelines
| 160 | Estimating Event Probabilities using Zero Failure Data | Breitung, Maes |
| 172 | Comparative Studies on Assessment of Corrosion Rates in Pipelines as Semi-Probabilistic and Fully Stochastic Values | Opeyemi, Patelli, Beer, Timashev |
| 653 | Time-dependent Reliability Assessment for Corroding Pipelines Based on Imperfect Inspection Data | Zhang, Kariyawasam, Zhou |
| 252 | Population-based Approach to Estimate Corrosion Growth in Pipelines | Dann, Maes |
| 251 | Bayesian Approach to Estimate Corrosion Frowth From a Limited Set of Matched Features | Dann, Huyse |
MS-15: Reliability of Geotechnical Structures
| 504 | Reliability-Based Geotechnical Design: Towards a Unified Theory | Fenton, Naghibi, Griffiths |
| 461 | Effects of Spatial Soil Heterogeneities on Structural Behavior of a Steel Sheet Pile | Yáñez-Godoy, Elachachi |
| 532 | On the Use of Spatially Averaged Shear Strength for the Bearing Capacity of a Shallow Foundation | Ching, Hu, Phoon |
| 291 | Subset Simulation-based Random Finite Element Method for Slope Reliability Analysis and Risk Assessment | Li, Xiao, Cao, Zhou |
| 143 | Determination of Soil Property Characteristic Values from Standard Penetration Tests | Wang, Zhao, Cao |
| 590 | Variability of Allowable Bearing Capacity of Soft Soil Stabilized by End-bearing Deep Mixed Columns | Zhang, Chen, Huang |
| 634 | Geotechnical Reliability-based Designs and Links with LRFD | Low, Phoon |
| 249 | Model Uncertainty for the Capacity of Strip Footings under Negative and General Combined Loading | Phoon, Tang |
| 574 | Effect of Correlation Structure Model on Geotechnical Reliability-based Serviceability Limit State Simulations | Huffman, Stuedlein |
| 429 | Probabilistic Capacity Assessment of a Prestressed Concrete Pile in a Corrosive Marine Environment | Schmuhl, Shafieezadeh, Hur |
| 156 | Levee Reliability Analysis Considering Different Failure Mechanisms – A Case Study (Gueishan Levee) in Southern Taiwan | Huang, Yu |
| 624 | An Efficient Method to Compute the Failure Probability | Gong, Juang, Martin, Zhang |
| 475 | Diagnosis of Earth-fill Dams by Synthesized Approach of Sounding and Surface Wave Method | Nishimura, Shibata, Shuku |
| 102 | Bayesian Methods and Liquefaction | Christian, Baecher |
| 603 | Single vs Multi-drain Probabilistic Analyses of Soil Consolidation via Prefabricated Vertical Drains | Bari, Shahin, Soubra, (Presenter absent) |
MS-16: Probability Density Evolution Theory and Its Applications
| 128 | An Approximate Approach for Assessing the Reliability of a Stochastically Excited Softening Duffing Oscillator | Zhang, Kougioumtzoglou |
| 256 | A New Probabilistic Model of Fully Non-Stationary Ground Motion and its Application | Liu, Liu, Dan |
| 459 | A Random Field Representation Based on Stochastic Harmonic Functions | Chen, He, Li |
| 521 | Physically-based Seismic Reliability Evaluation of Water Distribution Networks | Liu, Sun, Li |
| 530 | A Phase Space Reconstruction Method for getting Instantaneous Probability Density Function of Nonlinear Stochastic Systems | Jiang, Li |
| 544 | A Two-step Density Estimation Method and Its Applications | Tao, Li |
| 578 | Stochastic Optimal Control of MR Damped Structures with Uncertain Parameters | Peng, Yang, Li |
| 593 | Dynamic Response and Reliability of Tunnel under Earthquakes | Yue, Ang |
MS-17: Communicating Risk Under High Uncertainty: Developing Cross-disciplinary Knowledge
| 107 | Communicating Risk in Major Incidents: the Public’s Perception | Swan, Waring, Alison, Beer |
| 113 | Likelihood of Progressive Collapse of Buildings from Terrorist Attacks | Stewart, Grant |
| 137 | A Clustering Approach to Identification of Seismic Building Damage Patterns for Concrete Structures | Elwood, Corotis |
| 190 | Learning from Accidents: Analysis and Representation of Human Errors in Multi-attribute Events | Moura, Beer, Lewis, Patelli |
| 565 | Risk Perception in Civil Engineering Applications | Micic |
MS-19: Risk-targeted Response Spectra for Seismic Design
| 583 | Advances on Risk-targeted Hazard Estimation within the European Context | Silva, Crowley, Bazzurro |
| 584 | Investigation of Structural Fragility for Risk-targeted Hazard Assessment | Martins, Silva, Crowley, Bazzurro, Marques |
| 637 | Development of Earthquake Risk-Targeted Ground Motions for Indonesian Earthquake Resistance Building Code SNI 1726-2012 | Sengara, Irsyam, Sidi, Mulia, Asrurifak, Hutabarat |
| 404 | Modifications to Risk-Targeted Seismic Design Maps for Subduction and Near-Fault Hazards | Liel, Luco, Raghunandan, Champion |
| 391 | Reliability-Based Snow Load Maps for Building Design | DeBock, Liel, Harris, Torrents |
| 268 | Environmental Contours for Determination of Seismic Design Response Spectra | Loth, Baker |
MS-20: Stochastic Earthquake Ground Motion Simulation, Validation, and Engineering Applications
| 127 | Tuning of Record-based Stochastic Ground Motion Models for Hazard-compatibility and Applications to Seismic Risk Assessment | Vetter, Taflanidis, Mavroeidis |
| 162 | A Fully Parametric Non-stationary Spectral-based Stochastic Ground Motion Model | Vlachos, Deodatis, Papakonstantinou |
| 185 | Stochastic Ground Motion Simulation for Crustal Earthquakes in Japan | Itoi |
| 436 | Simulation of Earthquake Ground Motions in The Eastern U.S. Using Physics-based and Stochastic Approaches | Rezaeian, Hartzell, Sun, Mendoza |
| 402 | Validation of the Use of Synthetic Near-Fault Ground Motions to Estimate the Response of a Concrete Building in a Risk Assessment Framework | Dabaghi, Galanis, Der Kiureghian, Moehle |
| 270 | Generation of Synthetic Accelerograms Compatible with a Set of Design Specifications | Batou, Soize |
| 445 | Sensitivity of Ground Motion Simulation Validation Criteria to Filtering | Khoshnevis, Taborda |
| 533 | Response of Buried Pipes Taking into Account Seismic and Soil Spatial Variabilities | Elachachi, Yanez-Godoy |
| 550 | Conditional Simulation of Spatially Variable Motions on 2D Grid | Ancheta, Stewart |
MS-21: Advances and Outlooks in Seismic Risk Analysis
| 380 | Influence of Failure Modes of RC Columns on Simplified Seismic Loss Assessment | De Luca, Galasso |
| 320 | Spectral Shape Proxies and Simplified Fragility Analysis of Mid-rise Reinforced Concrete Buildings | Minas, Galasso, Rossetto |
| 258 | Building Performance Loss After Damaging Earthquakes: An Investigation Towards Reparability Decisions | Gaetani d’Aragona, Polese, Elwood, Baradaran Shoraka, Prota, Manfredi |
| 513 | Fragility Functions for Pipeline in Liquefiable Sand: A Case Study on the Groningen Gas Network | Miraglia, Courage, Meijers |
MS-22: Probabilistic Aspects of System Identification and Health Monitoring
| 455 | Message-passing Sequential Detection of Multiple Structural Damages | Liao, Rajagopal |
| 202 | A Comparison of Unscented and Extended Kalman Filtering for Nonlinear System Identification | Al-Hussein, Haldar |
| 261 | Identification Uncertainty of Close Modes in Operational Modal Analysis | Zhu, Au, Jones |
MS-23: Robust, Performance-based and Reliability-based Optimization Under Uncertainty
| 134 | Design of Floor Isolation Systems Through Multi-objective Criteria for Seismic Risk Performance | Gidaris, Taflanidis, Lopez-Garcia, Mavroeidis |
| 151 | Optimization of Non-linear Truss Considering Expected Consequences of Failure | Pedrosa, Beck |
| 215 | Risk Optimization of Trusses Using a New Gradient Estimation Method | Gomes |
| 275 | Topology Optimization of Linear Structural System Under Stationary Stochastic Excitation | Zhu, Yang, Shields, Guest |
| 359 | Approximating Sensitivity of Failure Probability in Reliability-Based Design Optimization | Liu, Paulino, Gardoni |
| 464 | Risk Measures in Engineering Design under Uncertainty | Rockafellar, Royset |
| 465 | The SL-AVV Approach to System Level Reliability-Based Design Optimization of Large Uncertain and Stochastic Dynamic Systems | Spence |
| 495 | Topology Optimization of Structures under Constraints on First Passage Probability | Chun, Song, Paulino |
| 526 | Probabilistic Performance-based Optimum Seismic Design with Application to the California High-Speed Rail Prototype Bridge | Li, Conte |
| 537 | A Framework for Performance-Based Optimization of Structural Robustness | Marjanishvili, Katz |
| 538 | Reliability-based Design of Tuned Mass-Damper-Inerter (TMDI) Equipped Multi-storey Frame Buildings under Seismic Excitation | Giaralis, Taflanidis |
| 594 | Efficient Optimal Design-Under-Uncertainty of Passive Structural Control Devices | De, Wojtkiewicz, Johnson |
| 615 | Reliability-based Maintenance Optimization of Pipelines Considering Space-variant Corrosion Rate | Sahraoui, Chateauneuf, Khelif |
MS-24: Advanced Simulation Methods for Probabilistic Analysis of Complex Engineering Problems
| 139 | Simulation of Strongly Non-Gaussian and Non-stationary Stochastic Processes by Karhunen-Loeve Expansion | Kim, Shields |
| 245 | Efficient Monte Carlo Algorithm for Rare Failure Event Simulation | Patelli, Au |
| 255 | Rare Event Simulation: A Point Process Interpretation with Application in Probability and Quantile Estimation | Walter, Defaux |
| 456 | Resource Allocation and Uncertainty when Modeling Infrastructure Networks as Socio-technical Systems | Gómez, Sánchez-Silva, Dueñas-Osorio |
MS-25: Recent Developments in Reliability and Cost Prediction of Building Inventories and Civil Infrastructure Systems
| 651 | A Framework to Develop Community Resilience Performance Goals and Assessment Metrics for Decision Making | McAllister |
| 142 | Preliminary Extension of First Order Reliability Methods for Combined Seismic and Wind Hazard Loss Estimation for a Portfolio of Buildings | Corotis, Bonstrom |
| 179 | Multi-Objective Community-Level Seismic Retrofit Optimization for Resiliency using Engineering and Socioeconomic Variables | Jennings, van de Lindt, Peek |
| 225 | Disaggregating Community Resilience Objectives to Achieve building Performance Goals | Wang, Ellingwood |
| 274 | Quantification of Resilience improvements for Critical Facilities through Advanced Technologies | Cimellaro, Terzic, Mahin |
| 399 | A Case-study on Scenario-based Probabilistic Seismic Loss Assessment for a Portfolio of Bridges | Miano, Jalayer, De Risi, Prota, Manfredi |
| 425 | Integrated Spatial Community Resilience Decision Tool Unifying Social Vulnerability Indices and Relative Sea-Level Rise Predictions | Francis, Esfandiary |
| 443 | Efficient Computational Models for the Optimal Representation of Correlated Regional Hazard | Christou, Bocchini |
| 650 | Stochastic Renewal Process Models for Life Cycle Cost and Utility Analysis | Pandey, Cheng, Wang |
| 119 | Reliability-Based Progressive Collapse and Redundancy Analysis of Suspension Bridges | Yang, Ghosn |
MS-26: Value of Information in Civil Engineering
| 135 | Pre-posterior Optimization of Sequence of Measurement and Intervention Actions under Structural Reliability Constraint | Goulet, Der Kiureghian, Li |
| 188 | Parameter Study on Optimal Sampling Planning based on Value of Information | Yoshida |
| 224 | A Bayesian Change Point Model to Detect Changes in Event Occurrence Rates, with Application to Induced Seismicity | Gupta, Baker |
| 243 | Value of Information in Retrofitting of Flood Defenses | Schweckendiek, Vrouwenvelder |
| 273 | Value of Information on the Risk/Benefit of Infrastructrure under Strong Winds in Mexico | De Leon, Lopez, Esteva |
| 605 | Quantification of the Value of Structural Health Monitoring Information for Fatigue Deteriorating Structural Systems | Thöns, Schneider, Faber |
| 617 | On the Value of SHM in the Context of Service Life Integrity Management | Qin, Thöns, Faber |
MS-27: Life Cycle Based Design and Optimization of Structural Systems under Uncertainty
| 214 | Bayesian Updated Time-Dependent Chloride-Induced Corrosion Assessment Using Redundancy Factors | Botte, Caspeele, Taerwe |
| 108 | Role of Uncertainty in Life-Cycle Design of Concrete Structures | Biondini, Frangopol |
| 205 | Ethical Discounting for Intergenerational Life-cycle Risk Assessment | Lee, Ellingwood |
| 123 | Life-cycle System Performance of Bridges: A Robustness-based Approach | Cavaco, Casas, Neves |
| 259 | Optimization of Inspection Plans for Structures Submitted to Non-stationary Stochastic Degradation Processes | Decatoire, Elachachi, Yalamas, Schoefs |
| 230 | Travel Time Reliability Based Bridge Network Maintenance Optimization under Budget Constraint | Zhang, Cao, Wang |
| 502 | Prediction of Creep and Shrinkage based on Gamma Process Models | Strauss, Wendner, Vidovic, Zambon, Frangopol |
| 394 | Probabilistic Model for Ageing Masonry Walls | Micic, Asenov |
MS-28: Predicting and Adapting to Climate Change
| 271 | Implications of Hurricane-Sea Surface Temperature Relationship | Mudd, Letchford, Rosowsky |
| 408 | Statistical Investigation of Extreme Weather Conditions | Proske |
| 254 | Reliability of Extreme Wave Prediction Methods | Barker, Murphy, Pakrashi |
| 114 | Cost-Effective Design and Maintenance of Timber Power Distribution Poles in a Changing Climate | Ryan, Stewart, Spencer |
| 458 | Addressing Uncertainty in Ensemble Sea-Level Rise Predictions | Thomas, Lin |
| 606 | Reliability Based Design Optimization of Insulation Systems Considering Climate Change and Workmanship Uncertainties | Aïssani, Chateauneuf, Fontaine |
| 158 | Dynamic Restricted Equilibrium Model to Determine Statistically the Resilience of a Traffic Network to Extreme Weather Events | Nogal, Martinez-Pastor, O’Connor, Caulfield |
| 338 | Quantifying the Impact of Critical Infrastructure Failure due to Extreme Weather Events | OBrien, Hajializadeh, Power |
| 419 | A Markov Regime-Switching Framework Application for Describing El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Patterns | Cárdenas Gallo, Sánchez-Silva, Akhavan-Tabatabaei, Bastidas-Arteaga |